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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a 0-0 draw, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Recent History

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.